Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Friday, April 15, 2011
Bair: Dodd-Frank can restore market discipline
Thursday, April 14, 2011
The Day Ahead: PPI, Jobless Claims, Bond Auction, Fed Speak
The ten-year Treasury rallied three basis points overnight to 3.43%, marking the third straight session of strengthening. The benchmark 10-year note is currently +4/32 at 101-16 yielding 3.444%. 10s actually moved mostly sideways in overseas trading before making a break lower in the 5AM hour after this headline hit wires....
"Our investigation found a financial snake pit rife with greed, conflicts of interest, and wrongdoing," said senator Carl Levin, chairman of the subcommittee investigating the causes of the crisis.
Stocks look to decline on the open as investors brace for new data on inflation and employment. S&P 500 futures are down 5.25 points at 1,303.50 and Dow futures are off 44 points at 12,155.
Light crude oil futures are -0.53 at $107.18 per barrel - down from $112 per last week - while gold futures are trading +1.00 at 1,456.60.
"The US dollar index is modestly higher this morning and equity markets are taking a negative tone as inflation worries and euro area struggles weigh," said economists at BMO Capital Markets. They note that Greek and Portuguese 10-year bond yields rose to euro-era record highs, "underscoring the ongoing crisis in the region."
Mortgages have opened wider to the 10-year note but are in-line with swaps and 5-year notes. The FNCL 4.5 is UNCH at 101-18.
Key Events Today:
8:30 - With the bond market on edge about rising inflation, the Producer Price Index will be watched closely this month. The headline index jumped 1.6% in the month of February and forecasters assume another substantial increase in March at 1%. Oil prices are of course the main culprit. The core index, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, is anticipated to rise a moderate 0.2% for the second straight month.
"Food will not spike as it did last month (when a freeze devastated fresh vegetable supplies), but food commodity prices do keep climbing," said economists at IHS Global Insight, who believe oil prices could push the headline figure to 2%. " Core prices should probably climb at the recent average level of about 0.2% with some pass-through of higher commodity costs pushing prices higher."
8:30 - Initial Jobless Claims have been falling at a pretty steady pace recently. The last report showed 382k new claims for unemployment insurance in the week ending April 2, down 10k from the previous week and comparing with 405k in the first week of March. Economists anticipate 380k new claims this week, about 9k below the four-week average.
"US initial claims for unemployment insurance are likely to continue their downtrend in coming weeks," said economists at Nomura. "While layoffs are certainly slowing, we will focus on whether hiring picks up in tandem."
9:00 - Narayana Kocherlakota, president of the Minneapolis Fed, speaks to the HomeTown Helena Meeting in Helena, Montana on "Economic Development in Indian Country."
9:00 - Elizabeth Duke, governor of the Fed, speaks on small credit conditions.
12:30 - Charles Plosser, president of the Philadelphia Fed, speaks to the Levy Institute at Bard College in New York.
1:00 - Treasury auctions $13 billion 30-Year Bonds
Today is Class B Notification Day for 15 year MBS coupons
Mortgage rates inch up, remain below 5%: Freddie Mac
Saturday, April 9, 2011
Analysts say FHA shutdown possible without budget consensus
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
Eight bills to wind down Fannie, Freddie inch forward
Monday, April 4, 2011
Why the Housing Crash May End in 2011
QRM premium capture reserve could hinder secondary market
QRM premium capture reserve could hinder secondary market Requiring a securitization sponsor to hold a premium on a deal in cash under the qualified residential mortgage standard could have the unintended consequence of being a disincentive for the secondary market.The "premium capture reserve account" puts banks at a disadvantage for securitization and forces substantial changes within that business structure. The premium reserve, as written in the QRM proposal released last week, would be loss absorbing and subordinate to all other tranches, effectively becoming the first loss on a deal, according to reports from JPMorgan Securities and Barclays Capital.According to JPMorgan Securities, the proposal fails to incorporate the costs of originating loans or the cost a sponsor may incur to buy the loan from an originator. Since most originators sell whole loans at a premium, JPMorgan expects the value of the premium to decline."If a premium received by the sponsor will not be released for five years and a 15% discount rate is applied (since it is a first loss), any premium value would be cut in half," the firm said.Barclays Capital said that banks' traditional origination channels would feel the effects of this reserve balance the most, and that it may make it difficult for banks to get true sale accounting treatment."The fact that this does not take into account costs that push a bank’s basis in originating the loan to above par means that the bank may be left paying out of pocket to fund the premium recapture account, which is worse than just holding the loan on portfolio," Barclays said.JPMorgan said for both these reasons the premium capture reserve account could potentially be a "deal-killer" for both agency and private-label securitizations. Barclays believes that based on the new standards, real estate investment trusts, asset managers and insurance companies will be making most of the new deals in the QRM space.Federal regulators provided a narrow definition of the QRM last week, and also voted in favor of an exemption rule set at 20% down payment. A qualified residential mortgage is one with a maximum 80% loan to value, on a property that is owner-occupied and has a 30-year amortization period with full documentation. A borrower must have a track record clear of 60-day delinquencies. This excludes interest-only loans and loans with premium penalties.JPMorgan said less than 20% of all GSE loans originated since 2001 would meet this standard, while roughly 20% to 25% of nonagency loans qualify.
New Rules for First-Time Home Buyers
New Rules for First-Time Home Buyers
Without a house to sell , first-time home buyers have had a field day in the depressed housing market. Until recently, anyway. A series of new rules, regulations and policies have changed the landscape, making buying that new home harder and more expensive.Not long ago, first-time buyers accounted for 40% of home sales. Now they're down to 29% and falling, experts say, as first-time buyers confront a steady accumulation of rising fees, costs, and rates. This month, fees on most new mortgages will rise by up to 0.50%. In April, fees on small-down-payment mortgages, a first-time buyer favorite, will spike. Meanwhile, more lenders are requiring larger down payments, and new proposals from the Obama administration call for mortgages to become more expensive and limited in size. The new fees and higher barriers to entry are all a response to the sweeping mortgage losses of the last several years. Banks and other lenders lost billions of dollars on subprime and other risky mortgages, and some must now buy back bad loans they sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. To cover those losses, banks and the agencies are raising fees on new mortgages, says Keith Gumbinger, a vice president at HSH Associates, which tracks the mortgage market. Also, from the perspective of lenders and the government, making it harder and more expensive to get a mortgage will deter or cull the riskiest borrowers and minimize defaults.But taken in total, all this reform means the window of opportunity for first-time buyers may be closing. Home prices still seem to be near the bottom, mortgages are still cheap and, though they have increased over the past five months, interest rates are still low. Of course, there are still reasons to wait to buy: The changes to the mortgage market could depress home sales and prices further. But for those who don't want to wait, here are the new rules for first-time home buyers. New rule: Put more money down. Not because you'll have to -- it's still possible to make a down payment of less than 5% -- but because you want to. Insurance fees on the government-insured mortgages that require just 3.5% down have doubled in seven months, to up to 1.15% (as of April). On a 30-year, $300,000 mortgage, a buyer would pay $30,000 more in fees than if he had signed up for the mortgage in September. Also, between new lender requirements and cash-flush buyers, down payments have been rising since the last half of 2010 and now average 34% of the purchase price, according to the latest data by mortgage-data firm CoreLogic. It's unlikely that a first-time home buyer can save so much money for a down payment, especially in high-priced markets like New York and San Francisco, says Cameron Findlay, chief economist at LendingTree.com, which tracks mortgage rates. Instead, first timers might need to consider alternative options to get cash , like grants offered by individual states. And most lenders still permit buyers to use cash gifts from family with a notarized letter from the donor stating that the money doesn't need to be paid back, says Gumbinger. Or, a buyer who's open to co-owning a home can sign up for a mortgage with a co-applicant who has extra cash to put down but wants a stake in the property. New rule: Stay for a decade. Not only are the days of flip-and-move long gone, but buying a house has become truly a long-term investment. In many cases, 10 years long, says Paul Bishop, vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors -- if buyers are hoping to make a profit or just break even. As mortgage fees rise, buyers have to recoup larger costs, which takes a longer time. Also, experts predict very slow growth in home prices over the next 10 years, which means it will take a long time before sellers can make a profit, says Findlay. Of course, buying a home may still make financial sense, but buyers' focus should shift from rising prices to building equity.For first-time buyers, this means avoiding homes that require renovations, if it's possible -- it will only take longer to recoup the costs of a new kitchen or deck, says Findlay. Instead, stick to a home that requires few major projects, which builds equity with the passing of time. Also, a bigger down payment can cushion the blow for buyers who end up having to sell in a hurry, because it lessens the chances of owing more money on the home than it's worth should values drop. New rule: Brace for competition. Following the housing downturn, desperate sellers were often eager to accept an offer – any offer. But now, first-time buyers looking for discounted prices may be disappointed. Over the past few months, investors, international buyers, and downsizing retirees have made a noticeable impact on the market, because they're paying with cash. In January, about 32% of purchases were made with all cash, up from 26% a year ago, according to the NAR. Sellers are often more inclined to accept these offers since they don't need to wait for a lender to approve financing, says Karen Trainor, managing broker at Weichert Realtors in Ashburn, Va.To stand out, first-time buyers can present an offer with few contingencies, she says. At this point, given growing competition among buyers, there's little reason for a seller to work with someone who requests repairs or asks them to cover the closing costs. But offers from buyers who ask strictly for a home inspection and appraisal – two requirements they shouldn't give up – are more likely to get accepted than all-cash bids with a long list of requirements.